In the span of 10 days from March 16 to March 26, Pakistan was rocked by five distinct acts of violence, three in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and two in the southwestern Balochistan province, resulting in the tragic loss of at least 18 lives.
All these incidents were carried out through suicide bombings, leading to the deaths of at least 12 military personnel, five Chinese nationals, and one Pakistani citizen.
While the nation has been grappling with a surge in violence over the past year, the recent spate of attacks, their specific targets, and the boldness with which they were executed are seen as potential harbingers of a new phase in Pakistan’s battle against armed factions, according to analysts.
The most recent trio of attacks, occurring in rapid succession, appeared to be aimed at Chinese interests in Pakistan. Initially, armed assailants targeted Pakistan’s Gwadar port in Balochistan, a strategic asset constructed with Chinese assistance. Subsequently, another group attacked one of Pakistan’s largest naval bases, also in Balochistan, citing Chinese investments in the region as their motive. Finally, attackers targeted Chinese engineers working on a Chinese-funded hydropower project near Besham city in the country’s north.
This pattern has raised alarms within Pakistan’s security circles, with concerns that these attacks on Chinese interests are part of a broader scheme to damage the country’s economic interests and sabotage ties between Pakistan and China, as per Iftikhar Firdous, a security analyst and armed groups researcher.
China stands as one of Pakistan’s closest allies, having invested a significant $62 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a project that encompasses a network of highways linking southwestern China to the Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea.
The assault on Chinese workers prompted a swift and stern response from Beijing. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged Pakistan to swiftly investigate the incidents, track down the perpetrators, and bring them to justice. China also called on Pakistan to take effective measures to ensure the safety and security of Chinese nationals, institutions, and projects in the country.
In response, the Pakistani government vowed to bring the terrorists and their collaborators to justice, announcing the formation of an investigative team to probe the attacks.
“Pakistan and China are close friends and iron brothers. We have no doubt that the Besham terror attack was orchestrated by the enemies of Pakistan-China friendship. Together, we will resolutely act against all such forces and defeat them,” declared the Foreign Ministry in a statement issued the following day.
Chinese interests have faced repeated attacks in the past as well. Last year, two gunmen targeted a convoy of 23 Chinese engineers in Gwadar, but their attack was thwarted by security forces. Similarly, in July 2021, at least nine Chinese engineers working on a hydropower project were killed in a suicide bombing, bearing eerie similarities to the events of March 26.
However, a notable difference between these attacks lies in their claims of responsibility. While incidents in Balochistan were readily claimed by rebel secessionist groups, no group claimed responsibility for the attack in the north. Broader trend of armed assaults
The attacks in Balochistan were claimed by the military wing of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), one among several hardline armed groups striving to secede from Pakistan.
Balochistan, the country’s largest province by area, is also its poorest, despite being rich in natural resources such as oil, coal, gold, copper, and gas reserves. This has led to accusations from many in Balochistan that successive Pakistani governments have ignored their concerns while exploiting the province for the benefit of foreigners. Since Pakistan’s formation in 1947, the province has witnessed at least five rebellion movements. The government has been accused of initiating a violent crackdown, allegedly resulting in the deaths and disappearances of thousands of ethnic Baloch who are suspected of either being rebels or supporting the rebellion.
The significant uptick in violent incidents in Pakistan over the past two years has coincided with the resurgence of the Afghan Taliban to power in August 2021. In 2023, over 650 attacks claimed nearly 1,000 lives, primarily those associated with the security forces.
The groups responsible for these attacks include the regional affiliate of the Islamic State, known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP or ISIS-K), and other relatively unknown organizations such as Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP) among others.
However, the most substantial challenge to the Pakistani state has emanated from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an armed group established in 2007, which has targeted both civilians and law enforcement personnel, resulting in thousands of deaths. The TTP’s stance
While ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban, the TTP seeks the reversal of the merger of Pakistan’s northwestern tribal regions with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, and a stricter implementation of their interpretation of Islamic laws in the region.
Following the Besham attack, the TTP, which unilaterally ended a ceasefire in November 2022 and has since escalated its attacks on Pakistan’s security forces, issued a statement denying its involvement in the incident.
According to Firdous, this could indicate the participation of religiously inspired armed groups and individuals who do not claim affiliation with established armed factions.
Firdous further explained that the Pakistani military believes that these “jihadist freelancers” are managed by hostile intelligence agencies, a term often used to allude to neighboring India.
Moreover, while nearly all “jihadist armed factions” in Afghanistan and Pakistan have been anti-China due to its treatment of its Uighur minority, the rulers of Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban, have remained silent on the matter.
“The Afghan Taliban, since taking control of the country, have stayed quiet on the issue, but the groups operating under the Taliban umbrella do not concur, viewing China as an oppressor of Muslims,” Firdous stated. “Thus, if individuals associated with larger groups have attacked the Chinese, there are no official claims, which could explain why the TTP denied its involvement in the attack.”
Fahd Humayun, an assistant professor of political science at Tufts University in the United States, believes that the Besham attack was perpetrated by either a “TTP affiliate or ISKP,” with the clear intention of targeting the Pakistan-China relationship to increase the costs for foreign governments and private companies investing in Pakistan.
“While the TTP has issued a statement denying its involvement in the attack, it is worth remembering it has incentives to maintain plausible deniability due to its relationship with the Afghan Taliban, which would oppose targeting the Chinese,” Humayun told Al Jazeera. “This aligns with the goals of such armed organizations, which aim to challenge the state’s authority and promote internal destabilization.” Baloch sentiments against China
Additionally, Firdous noted that Baloch insurgent groups perceive China as a superpower with expansionist ambitions, exploiting their resources without their consent.
“These groups pose a threat to both the Pakistani military and foreign investors, especially Chinese nationals, who have been attacked numerous times over the years,” he added.
With the increasing activity observed in Balochistan by rebel groups, Firdous pointed out that the suicide squads of the BLA’s armed wing have carried out “three major attacks using more than 24 suicide bombers” this year alone, signaling a strategic shift.
“They have transitioned from hit-and-run tactics to direct assaults on Pakistani security force bases. This trend indicates a rise in recruitment within the ranks of Baloch insurgent groups,” Firdous explained.
He emphasized the importance for the government to prioritize the development and welfare of Balochistan, ensuring that the province benefits from its own resources and that the local population is included in decision-making processes that impact their lives.
“Until these issues are addressed, the Baloch insurgency is likely to persist, posing a significant challenge to the economic stability and security of Balochistan and the rest of the country,” Firdous concluded.
