AfD Heads for Historic Victory in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt

Berlin: Germany’s far-right AfD is heading for a major victory in Saxony-Anhalt, according to exit polls, putting the party well ahead of its mainstream political rivals in the eastern state.

The AfD is projected to receive between 44% and 44.5% of the vote. Meanwhile, the conservative CDU is forecast to take around 18.5%.

The result could give the AfD its strongest position yet in a German state parliament. However, it is not immediately clear whether the party will win enough seats to form a government.

AfD Claims Mandate to Govern

AfD leaders have described the projected result as a “historic outcome”. The party’s leading figure in Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, has also refused to rule out governing without another party.

However, forming a government could prove difficult. The final balance of seats will depend on which smaller parties cross the five-percent threshold required to enter the state parliament.

If one or more smaller parties fail to reach the threshold, the AfD could gain a larger share of parliamentary seats. As a result, its chances of securing a majority could increase.

Historic Moment for the Far Right

No far-right party has controlled a German state government since the end of the Second World War.

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A successful AfD bid for power in Saxony-Anhalt would therefore mark a major shift in Germany’s political landscape. State governments have significant responsibilities, including policing, education and cultural policy.

The AfD’s projected performance is also stronger than several earlier opinion polls had indicated.

Party Classified as Far-Right Extremist

Saxony-Anhalt has a population of around 2.1 million people. The state branch of the AfD has been classified as “far-right extremist” by Germany’s domestic intelligence service.

Siegmund has rejected that classification.

The party has nevertheless continued to expand its support in eastern Germany. Its projected result in Saxony-Anhalt is likely to increase pressure on Germany’s established parties to respond to its growing electoral strength.

Coalition Question Remains

Despite the AfD’s strong showing, the final outcome will depend on the distribution of seats in the state parliament.

The five-percent threshold could prove decisive. Smaller parties that fall below the threshold would not normally receive parliamentary representation.

Consequently, the AfD could benefit even without increasing its vote share.

For now, the projected result represents a major breakthrough for the party. However, whether it translates into control of the state government will only become clear once the final results and seat distribution are confirmed.