The next presidential elections in Iran are scheduled for 18th June 2021. It is but obvious that the best efforts of President Rouhani’s team would be to get the sanctions imposed on the country removed and make a place for themselves in history.
He had stated that within the last 100 days of his presidency he would be able to get the sanctions lifted and relieve the economy.
As against this, the European countries, especially those not too keen on removing the sanctions may choose to slow down the process. Their choice would be to pressurize the newly elected regime to agree on revised terms and conditions.
The Vienna negotiations entered their third week on Tuesday 27th April 2021. Seyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s top negotiator, described the last meeting of the Joint Commission of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Actions (JCPOA) ‘on the right track.
However, it is evident that a confrontation is going on. Iran, China, and Russia unanimously and unequivocally called for the immediate lifting of the sanctions. Iran is patiently waiting for E3 (Germany, France, and Britain) to call on the US to lift all the sanctions. But that is unlikely to happen, as E3 has shown in the past that they have no free will of their own. Time and again, they have followed what the US has said.
The Biden administration is said to be looking into possibilities of easing banking, oil, and financial sanctions on Iran. Immediate removal of all sanctions in a verifiable way is the only demand Iran has.
The JCPOA experience proves that when sanctions are lifted on paper, nothing practical is done. After the JCPOA, Iran kept struggling with issues such as transferring its money withheld in other countries.
The Biden administration must understand that delaying tactics will not help. The leader of the Islamic Revolution is asking all sides not to engage in ‘erosive and prolonged’ negotiations but to expedite the process. Yet, the United States keeps saying that they do not want to rush into a deal.
“We expect this to be a long process. And we’re very much at just the beginning period,” Jen Psaki, the White House spokesperson, said on April 8.
The US seems to be insisting that the negotiations would take longer than expected. History suggests that the US is likely to wait and see what happens in the elections, as they reportedly did in 2013 when John Kerry halted the negotiations.
There are many details that need to be ironed out. For example, the sanctions on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), along with the sanctions on the office of Ayatollah Khamenei, Leader of the Islamic Revolution, need to be resolved. According to the Wall Street Journal, there is a big difference of opinion about the removal of sanctions on these two sides.
As regards the stance of potential presidential candidates, they have announced their plans for the continuation of negotiations, if elected.
Rostam Ghasemi, former Minister of Petroleum during Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s administration and a presidential candidate, stated that sanctions removal is his first priority, and he will take the control of the negotiations himself if elected.
Making the sanctions ineffective is his next priority. “If I want to negotiate, I will strengthen the country’s economy,” Ghasemi said.
“We should change the ‘imploring diplomacy’ to the diplomacy of power,” he said on his possible government’s diplomacy.
He added that the United States “must return to the JCPOA without any preconditions.”
Saeed Jalili, another potential and highly anticipated presidential candidate, is expected to continue the negotiations if elected. Based on his past experience as the Secretary-General of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, and him being Iran’s Chief Nuclear Negotiator between 2010 and 2013, it is likely that he would continue the negotiations.
Saeed Mohammad, the former Director of Khatam-al -Anbiya Construction Headquarters and a mysterious figure to many Iranians, has officially announced that he is running for president.
He has also declared that he is open to negotiations, on the condition that Iran “strengthens itself internally.”
Written by Shabbir Kazmi
