New Study Finds Dengue Burden in Pakistan Far Higher Than Official Estimates
New research highlights the growing burden of dengue fever in Pakistan.
A new study led by Aga Khan University (AKU) has found a far greater dengue burden in Pakistan than previously estimated.
AKU conducted the research with national and international partners. The study appears in PLOS ONE and examines dengue incidence from 2012 to 2022.
Researchers used advanced statistical modelling to produce more representative national estimates. They also considered healthcare-seeking behaviour, diagnostic testing and laboratory use.
Dengue Cases Rise Sharply
The research shows a dramatic rise in dengue cases over the 10-year period.
Estimated cases rose from about 100,000 in 2012 to around 3.28 million in 2022.
Researchers say the figures point to a much larger dengue burden than official surveillance data indicates.
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Professor Erum Khan, Chair of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine at AKU, explained the study’s approach.
She said the research team used clinical laboratory data from three nationwide diagnostic laboratory networks. The team then used the data to estimate dengue incidence across Pakistan.
Sindh Records Highest Burden
The study found major differences in dengue transmission across Pakistan.
Sindh recorded the highest estimated burden, with 45.63 cases per 1,000 people. Researchers estimate that the province recorded around 2.63 million cases.
Adults aged 15 to 49 years accounted for a large share of the estimated cases.
At the district level, Karachi East recorded the highest estimated incidence. The finding highlights the need for targeted public health measures in high-risk areas.
Dengue Threat Extends Beyond Monsoon
Dr Zarmeen Nasim, the study’s lead author, said dengue has become more than a seasonal threat.
Nasim serves as an Assistant Professor and researcher at the AKU Health Data Science Centre.
She said dengue cases still surge during the post-monsoon months. However, the data also shows signs of year-round transmission.
The research indicates that outbreaks have grown progressively larger over time.
Researchers Call for Stronger Prevention
The researchers urge authorities to strengthen dengue surveillance across Pakistan.
They also recommend greater focus on high-risk districts. Improved environmental control measures should form another part of the response.
The study supports a sustainable, multi-pronged prevention strategy.
This strategy could include mosquito vector control and dengue vaccines. Researchers also highlighted Wolbachia mosquitoes as a potential prevention tool.
They also called for greater awareness among the public. In addition, they stressed the need to train healthcare professionals in effective dengue management.
The findings highlight the need for a coordinated national response. Stronger surveillance and prevention efforts could help Pakistan tackle the growing dengue threat.
