The world has watched with amazement the fall of Kabul and cowardly the flight of Ghani to Uzbekistan. “After 20 years the war is over!” was the message that the spokesman of the Taleban political office gave to the media last Sunday. The evacuation of US personal by helicopters – though more organized –reminded me of the well-documented and hasty US departure Saigon many decades ago. Posing for pictures while sitting cosily in the presidential palace in Kabul the Taleban transmit the same message as the Viet Cong did.
In less than a month the Taleban took one city and then the other without even token resistance. The groundwork had been laid for years in the rural areas where the power of and sympathy for the Ghani government was almost non-existent. Even in Mazar-I Sharif and Herat where one expected local warlords resistance from there was too little too late. Ghani flew to Mazar-I Sharif had taken the infamous Uzbek warlord Dostum with him who had just returned from Turkey to convince the local warlords but it was too late.
The Taleban have to be admired for pursuing a very thoughtful and mature policy. They had already taken control of the main border points and had in their previous contacts with regional powers assured everybody that they would not under no circumstances cross the borders into foreign territory. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is on record that the Taliban vowed not to cross into Central Asian Republics. The same had been cleared with Iran, Pakistan and China. Thus, they had no reason to foster Afghan warlords against the Taleban who by their clever policy neutralized them and prevented the possibility of a new civil war in Afghanistan, at least for the time being.
For the West, it is a mystery how and why the Afghan army that they had financed and trained for so many years was so unwilling and unable to fight. The corruption promoted by the Ghani regime resulted in the misappropriation of the defence budget among other scams to pocket the money and buy real estate in Dubai, who owns most of Palm Island? Soldiers seldom received their full pay as officers pocketed the money which explains the high rate of desertion (almost 35000 annually) from enlisted men. They often flogged their US-supplied weapons in the black market to earn a living. There was no moral motivation to fight for a Western-supported corrupt regime and fight against the Taleban who share much of the same religious believes traditions and values. And representatives of the Taleban have many times made fun of the Afghan Army who fights for salaries while the Taleban fight for a cause. The failure to provide a convincing cause to the Afghan army is certainly another major reason for their unwillingness to fight.
The failure of this Doha peace plan agreed upon between the US and the Taleban was not predetermined. While the US was cutting their losses and took it as a face-saving retreat from a lost war the Taleban saw in it a possibility to reach the goal that they had been fighting for so long: remove foreign occupation. The fact that the Ghani government was not involved in the negotiations just shows that the US considered it their client that had to follow their master. From the beginning it was clear that the Taleban would not tolerate an American stooge government in future, however they were ready to leave Ghani’s removal to a later negotiated political process. One of the values of the Taleban based on the commandments of Quran and the Prophet Himself is to stand by agreements. That is why regional powers can rely on Taleban assurances to respect international borders. But once the US violated the agreement all bets were off. While it is clear to the Taleban that peace in Afghanistan needs a political solution they have removed the remaining foreign stooge militarily. Neither the US nor anyone in the rest of the world were aware that the Taleban were capable of that in such a short time!
The attitude of the Taleban before 2001 is not the same today. This has been made clear in their words and deeds in Kabul, in fact preceding Kabul in all the cities and towns captured earlier. The message to the Afghan Army was unambiguous, “lay down your arms and equipment and leave without any retribution” and paved their easy access to Kabul. This hastened the Army meltdown. They have changed quite a bit, from an unruly movement consisting of multiple armies of local commanders without much of a central power of command today the Taleban are much more united and disciplined, otherwise avoiding loot and massacres in a large style would not have been possible. Not a ragtag force any more the discipline has been strengthened by a stronger commitment of the ground force of the Taleban to the leadership and the values committed to by them. A second reason is that while the Taleban had been created as a Pashtun force mainly that pitched Pashtuns against the other ethnicities present in Afghanistan today the Taleban include a strong section of Tajiks and Uzbeks which diminishes if not fully removes the ethnic split of them. Ismail Khan writes in Dawn “The real deal-breaker or maker however was an ethnic Tajik commander, Qari Fasihuddin, who successfully managed to win over his fellow Tajik, Uzbek and Hazaras to his side. Senior Taliban figures, the likes of Abdul Wakil Mutawakkil, are directly engaged to allay fears of sceptics.”. Avoiding ethnic exclusivity has certainly added to Taleban power. It is important to note about their insistence on an inclusive govts. Symobilic is their asking the Kabul. May or to stay on. I can bet Abdullah Abdullah will be part of the new set-up directly or indirectly (read my articles on Afghanistan of Sep 29, 2020 and April 2, 2021).
Taleban leaders have a couple of times said that they learnt from past mistakes regarding the role of women in Afghan society. This has been reiterated in their first Press Conference in Kabul on Tuesday. If this is true and women will be allowed to go to school, take up jobs and move around that will certainly strengthen their acceptance especially in the cities. And last but not least, the anti-Shia aspect of the Taleban seems to have been visibly softened. If that will hold up it will contribute to peace in a united Afghanistan.
The announcement of the Taleban that the war is over is a good sign for the near future. During their sweep through Afghanistan the Taleban assured the civilians that no retaliation would be taken and no loot and plunder would take place. This was strictly adhered to. That was one reason why Afghans allowed the Taleban into the cities and why the army surrendered or melted away. Kabul was taken with hardly a shot fired. The terrible ghost of a new civil war in Afghanistan can be prevented, the war lords who did the fighting last time with foreign financing neutralized. It is important that the West after its defeat keeps out of Afghan affairs. To gain most from peace the regional powers around Afghanistan that suffered most from the ongoing war should now cooperate to keep the peace and help in rebuilding Afghan country and economy.
