Amid growing disruption to energy infrastructure in the Middle East, Pakistan faces increasing pressure to rethink its long-term energy strategy, with experts warning that the global market may not return to previous stability anytime soon.
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While the crisis has accelerated the global search for alternatives, Pakistan has emerged as a notable example of rapid adaptation in the power sector. According to Jan Rosenow, solar energy adoption in the country has surged dramatically, rising from under 5% to over 25% of electricity generation within just four years — a significant milestone in renewable energy transition.
However, this progress has also exposed critical vulnerabilities. Despite relative resilience in electricity supply, Pakistan continues to face a severe dependence on imported petroleum, particularly in the transport sector. Analysts warn that prolonged disruptions could have triggered a wider economic crisis, affecting mobility, agriculture, and industrial output.
Currently, petroleum accounts for roughly one-quarter to one-third of Pakistan’s total import bill, making it a key driver of external economic pressure. The transport sector alone consumes nearly 75% to 80% of the country’s oil imports, costing an estimated $20 billion annually.
Despite global momentum, Pakistan remains far behind in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, with EVs making up less than 1% of total vehicles. In contrast, countries such as Thailand and Indonesia have rapidly expanded EV usage through supportive policies and infrastructure investment. Even within the region, India has made significant progress, particularly by electrifying over 99% of its railway network.
Experts argue that Pakistan’s slow progress is largely due to policy constraints, including reliance on outdated industrial strategies that prioritise limited local assembly over broader economic efficiency and innovation.
In addition to promoting EVs, energy specialists recommend revitalising the railway sector as a cost-effective alternative to road transport. Projects such as the proposed ML-1 rail corridor electrification could significantly reduce fuel consumption and logistics costs if prioritised.
Another key policy option is ethanol blending. Countries like Brazil and India have successfully reduced oil dependence through ethanol-mixed fuels. Pakistan, despite having substantial ethanol production capacity, continues to export most of it instead of utilising it domestically.
Furthermore, transitioning diesel-dependent sectors such as agriculture and mining to alternative energy sources — including locally generated power from Thar coal — could yield cost reductions of up to 60%, highlighting the economic advantages of domestic energy use.
Experts also stress the need to optimise domestic refining capacity, as Pakistan still imports nearly 30% of its diesel requirements despite having underutilised refineries.
The ongoing crisis is increasingly being viewed as a turning point. Policymakers are urged to adopt a comprehensive five-year strategy focused on reducing oil dependence, expanding renewable energy, electrifying transport, and shifting infrastructure investment toward more sustainable systems.
Without decisive reforms, analysts warn, Pakistan will remain vulnerable to global oil shocks, continuing a cycle of economic instability and balance-of-payments pressure.
