By Dr. Gholam Mujtaba.
New Jersey USA : As Pakistan approaches 2028, its political path faces a dangerous crossroads. For more than fifty years, the country’s governance has been controlled by two dynastic families: the Bhuttos and the Sharifs. What started with Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s populist rise in the 1970 elections eventually evolved into the Bhutto-Zardari dynasty, now 54 years deep into Pakistan’s power structures. Simultaneously, the Sharif family’s rise under General Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s created another lineage—entrenched for 44 years—with Nawaz Sharif at its helm, followed by other family members cycling through Pakistan’s political institutions [1].
These families have treated public office as an inheritance, hoarding wealth abroad—London flats, offshore trusts in the British Virgin Islands, secret accounts in the Cayman Islands, and real estate in Dubai [2]. Their fear of asset seizures or corruption trials in Pakistan is evident in their financial exodus. Such actions reveal their lack of faith in the judiciary they helped shape, the system they claim to defend.
With Nawaz Sharif (b. 1949), Asif Ali Zardari (b. 1955), and Imran Khan (b. 1952) all well into their seventies, a reality check is imminent. Given Pakistan’s average male life expectancy of 66 years [3], the country faces an unavoidable leadership vacuum. Even if longevity favors them, their political influence and physical abilities are already waning. Unfortunately, their children—Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, Maryam Nawaz, Hamza Shahbaz—have failed to earn public or institutional trust. Their performances lack conviction, depth, and independence. Their reliance on scripted narratives and dependence on external support, especially the military’s goodwill, indicate a leadership succession crisis.
The diplomatic insignificance of the political heirs became clear during Bilawal Bhutto’s foreign trips. His U.S. visit was met with symbolic indifference; key State Department officials chose not to meet him. In contrast, Field Marshal Munir, the Army Chief, was hosted for dinner in the White House Cabinet Room alongside top U.S. officials—an unmistakable message about where credibility lies [4]. This pattern repeats: Pakistan’s Prime Ministers, even under elected regimes, bring their Army Chiefs along on diplomatic visits because global leaders mistrust Pakistan’s political elite and their ability to deliver.
This looming leadership collapse calls for a clear evaluation of regional fault lines:
• Sindh: The PPP’s leadership is likely to collapse with Zardari’s departure. The MQM, now lacking Altaf Hussain’s unifying influence, is politically divided. In the resulting vacuum, Sindh faces the risk of ethnic and sectarian divisions, with groups like Jiye Sindh Qaumi Mahaz (JSQM) and other separatist organizations seeking control. This could pit rural and urban Sindh against each other, reigniting the tensions seen in the 1980s [5].
• Baluchistan: Controlled by feudal sardars like the Bugtis, Marris, and Bizenjos, Balochistan lacks strong institutional political leadership. With separatist sentiments rising and Indian covert support increasing, the power vacuum could enable hostile forces to take over governance and security in the province [6].
• Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK): The decline of JUI-F’s influence, the collapse of PTI after Imran Khan, and the weakening of nationalist groups like ANP will create a dangerous void. This could be exploited by militant Islamist groups with Taliban ties, pursuing the goal of a Greater Pashtunistan aligned with Kabul rather than Islamabad.
• Punjab: As the PML-N declines due to dynastic stagnation, and PPP remains an afterthought, the region will face a governance crisis. Political legitimacy is rapidly weakening, with growing disenchantment among the youth and middle classes.
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These regional vacuums will come together to create a national leadership crisis, more severe than a constitutional failure, it will lead to a collapse of legitimacy. Pakistan’s military, intelligence agencies, judiciary, and civil society must act swiftly to develop credible, locally grown leadership—leaders who possess moral authority, resilience, and merit, rather than merely family names.
The post-2028 Pakistan requires a new type of leader: one grounded in education, skilled in administration, globally minded, and committed to national integrity.
1. Reforming political party structures to prevent hereditary transfers of power.
2. Establishing leadership academies to identify and develop young talent.
3. Empowering overseas Pakistanis with proven experience in governance, law, and business to engage in political life.
4. Constitutional amendments that prevent repeat dynastic leadership after two consecutive generations.
If Pakistan does not prepare now, it risks falling into factionalism, ethnic violence, and political chaos. Leadership is not a birthright—it must be earned, trained, and trusted. A vacuum without vision will only attract vultures.
References:
1. Lodhi, M. (2023). Pakistan’s Political Dynasties and Democratic Backsliding. Brookings Institution.
2. International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ). (2016). Panama Papers & Paradise Papers: Offshore Holdings of Nawaz Sharif and Associates.
3. World Bank Data. (2024). Life Expectancy at Birth – Pakistan. [https://data.worldbank.org]
4. The Washington Post. (2024). Pakistan Army Chief Meets Biden Officials in Closed-Door White House Briefing.
5. The Diplomat. (2022). Sindhi Nationalism and the Failure of Urban Representation.
6. BBC Urdu. (2023). India’s Covert Operations in Balochistan: ISI Leaks.
7. Al Jazeera English. (2024). Resurgence of Taliban Sympathizers in KPK Post-PTI Collapse.
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About the Author:
Dr. Gholam Mujtaba is a Pakistani-American political leader, scholar, and senior Republican figure in the United States. He holds doctoral degrees in medicine and leadership studies, with a dissertation focused on civil-military leadership in Pakistan. As Chairman of the Pakistan Policy Institute USA, he has advised U.S. and international policymakers on South Asian security and governance. He currently serves as a cabinet-level advisor to President Donald J. Trump and leads Republican political strategy in New Jersey
