El Niño Could Become Strongest in More Than a Century, Met Office Warns
Britain’s Met Office says an unusually intense El Niño could push Pacific temperatures to unprecedented levels and disrupt weather patterns worldwide
An intense El Niño could trigger major changes in global temperatures, rainfall and weather patterns
A potentially historic El Niño could develop this year, with Britain’s Met Office forecasting an intensity not seen in more than a century.
Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, told the BBC that the event could peak at more than 3°C above the baseline used to measure the phenomenon.
He described the forecast as unprecedented. Scaife also said he had never seen an El Niño signal this intense in the agency’s forecasts.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise at least 0.5°C above the baseline average.
The warming can alter global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall.
It can also contribute to higher global temperatures.
According to Scaife, sea temperatures in the affected region are already significantly above normal.
The Climate Brink dashboard currently shows temperatures around 2.6°C above a rolling 30-year average.
Scaife said the anomalous warmth has already reached almost two degrees in some measurements.
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Severe Drought Risks Across the Tropics
The strongest effects could occur across tropical regions, according to the Met Office forecast.
Scaife warned of potentially severe drought conditions in parts of South America and the western Pacific.
Such prolonged changes could affect agriculture and food supplies.
“These are not short-term weather forecasts,” Scaife said. He stressed that the expected conditions could persist for an extended period.
The broader consequences could extend beyond weather. Changes in rainfall and temperature can put additional pressure on food production and food security.
UK Could See Wetter and Stormier Autumn
The effects of the weather pattern may also reach parts of Europe.
Scaife said the UK could experience increased rainfall and storm activity during the autumn.
The most noticeable effects could occur around November, according to the Met Office forecaster.
El Niño events can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific. Their effects vary by region and depend on the strength and timing of the event.
The latest forecast has therefore raised concerns about potentially significant changes in weather conditions across several parts of the world.
If the predicted intensity materializes, the event could become one of the most unusual El Niño episodes recorded in the modern climate record.
