In the aftermath of the Pahalgam incident in Indian-occupied Kashmir, India is weighing a major shift in its water policy by significantly increasing its withdrawal from rivers governed under the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty—an agreement that allocates most of the Indus river system to Pakistan.
Following the attack, India suspended its participation in the treaty and ordered the acceleration of infrastructure projects on the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers—water sources primarily designated for Pakistan. Among the proposals is a plan to double the length of the historic Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River to 120 kilometers, potentially tripling its water diversion capacity from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second.
These developments, currently under internal discussion, have raised alarm in Pakistan, which relies on the Indus system for 80% of its agricultural irrigation and most of its hydropower. Islamabad views any move to divert or block its share of water as an “act of war.”
Reports also indicate that India is drafting plans to store significant volumes of water and increase its hydropower capacity in Jammu and Kashmir from 3,360 megawatts to 12,000 megawatts through new dam projects, some of which are now actively under review.
Despite a recent ceasefire between the two countries, the water dispute threatens to destabilize the fragile peace. While these large-scale infrastructure changes would take years to complete, Pakistan has already seen signs of disruption, with water flows dropping sharply in early May due to Indian maintenance work.
Pakistan has announced plans to challenge India’s actions legally through international forums such as the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and possibly the International Court of Justice. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb emphasized, “Water should not be weaponized,” stressing the importance of restoring the treaty’s provisions.
