KARACHI – IMF has projected Pakistan’s GDP growth rate at 1.5 % for 2021 against negative 0.04% in 2020 whereas the State Bank of Pakistan has projected it as 3% that means IMF declared just half of it, which does not seems to be valid as per the other available economic growth forecasts said Ateeq Ur Rehman ( Economic & Financial Analyst ).
He said that IMFs growth forecast for GDP Growth rate for few countries like China is 8.4% , Britain 5.3 % , Germany 3.6% , USA 6.4% , Japan 3.3% looks appropriate but IMF expects India’s GDP to grow 12.5% in FY22 looks strange, owing to their Tertiary Sector of the Economy has been badly hit by the Pandemic and like us they have “Economic Disruptions ahead”, due to a very scary Third wave of Covid -19.
Ateeq added that IMFs Projection for Fiscal Year 2021 in terms of Import is $46.16 Billion against Exports $23.63 Billion hence bringing a Trade deficit of $22.53 Billion and that is quite alarming. Pakistan Exports achieved $25 Billion mark in 2013, after that it never reached to such level. Exports have to grow to $25 Billion immediately and then $50 Billion at the end of the current Fiscal Year. The Rising trend of Imports shows a mounting growth due to Import of Raw Material , Wheat , Sugar , Fertilizer , Cotton , Potatoes , Tomatoes, etc which is not good. In developing countries one cannot compress the import but at least in our case we can improve our Agriculture produce and stop Importing them. The Import of Agriculture produced recently added a value of $6-$7 Billion in our Import Bill.
He added that the war between opposition and treasury benches has to come to an end if not permanent at least temporarily, to combat with the given situation and in the better interest of the country and its suffering masses not only from Covid-19 but also from other Economic Disasters. Business Environment is a key prerequisite for the Economy to flourish, failing which unemployment and hunger will rise further.
