With ballot-box rigging, arbitrary arrests, politicization of the judiciary, media censorship, and endless internet blackouts, democracy has become a distant memory in Pakistan. The elections held on February 8, after two extremely turbulent political years, were a sad illustration of this.
History is witness that if the strong public mandate is stolen, the cycle of political instability will endure in Pakistan. To date, no prime minister in Pakistan’s constitutional history has completed his five-year term; the trend is likely to persist.
Due to its inherent weaknesses, the newly-formed coalition government will be heavily dependent on the establishment. Hybrid (i.e., military-civilian) rule will therefore continue in the country. The military’s resolve as a major stakeholder in the nation will be further tested by the emerging split public mandate. The Shehbaz Sharif-led government will face several daunting challenges.
The next government will have to expeditiously negotiate a fresh, extended programme with the IMF as the stand-by arrangement will end in April. This is urgently needed for Pakistan to meet its heavy foreign debt liabilities in the years ahead.
In addition, the new administration will have to present a challenging budget in May/early June catering to elimination of subsidies and implementation of additional levies. Similarly, the financial requirement for external payments is staggering: of a total debt of $260 billion, $116 billion is external.
Pakistan is on a knife-edge, and the three major political parties will do well to step back and evolve a political consensus through a grand political dialogue with a futuristic view of how to take the country forward. No political party alone can take Pakistan out of its current problems. The country needs to conciliate. For this, a new political consensus among the political stakeholders offers the best way forward.
Article, M. Sheroz Khan Lodhi
